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Statistics


“The winds and the waves are always on the side of the ablest navigators”
Edward Gibbon


World civilizations 
They have shown the tendency to trend for 500/700 years. Hellenic: -900/-380. Roman: -281/410. Byzantine: 527/1204. Ottoman Turks: 1453/1915. British: 1215/1947. Kiev: 862/1382. Tsarist: 1462/1917.

World temperature 
Since 1880, the world temperature has shown the tendency to increase for about 40 years (1910-1950 and 1970-2010) and then contract for about 20 years (1890-1910 and 1950-1970).  Corrections have lasted for about 40%-50% from the highs.

US economy
Since 1900, the DJI topped 3 times (1929/1965/2000). Each top had an interval of 35 years. The following periods of consolidation (bear) continued for 15/13/17 years top to bottom (1906/1921-1929/1942-1965/1982). Bull trends lasted instead for about 20 years (1942-1965, 1982-2000). Within these bull moves, the DJI has shown the tendency to uptrend for 50%-60% (min 40%, max 70%) bottom to top before correcting for 30%-50% top to bottom. Within these cycles, the DJI had minor corrections every 2 years and larger corrections every 4/5 years.

USDCAD
It has shown the tendency to bottom every 15 years (76/91/07). It then rose for 9/10 years and extended the move for about 30% top to bottom (95/143,162/112).  Downtrends lasted instead for 5 years (86/91, 02/07). Consolidations within bull trends occurred after about 3 years (76/79, 91/94) and lasted for 1/3 years (79/80, 94/97).  Consolidations occurred after 20% moves tops to bottoms (96/120, 112/140).

USDJPY
In the past, the USD/JPY rose for 40%–50% (4–5 years) from the lows (40-85 and 63-126) before topping, then corrected for 25%–30% (2–3 years) from the highs (84-62). The full cycle (five waves from 1984 to 1995) expanded for 65%–75% (40-126) and lasted for 8–10 years before turning down. The bear cycles continued instead for 44% (126-70) and 38% (56-35). They trended for 7–11 years before bottoming (1978–1985 and 1995–2007). How does this fit in the current scenario? The USD/JPY bottomed in 2007 at 82 and rose until 2011 (4 years) at 132 (39%). The correction should last 2 years and expand for about 25%.
US inflation and deflation
Since 1933, the CRB commodity index had two inflationary cycles. One topped in 1951, while the other finished in 1980 (a 29-year span). The period of bear markets (1951-1968, 1980-2002) has continued for about 20 years. During these phases, the index topped and bottomed roughly every 4/5 years. The index bottomed instead every 30/34 years (1938/1968/2002). From bottom to top, the inflationary cycles have continued for about 12/13 years (1938/1951-1968/1980). Top to bottom, the index rose 55%/65%.

US dollar
Since 1972, EUR-DM/USD long-term trends topped in 1980 and 1995 (15 years). From bottom to top the uptrend lasted for 8 years (1972-1980) and 10 years (1985-1995). Bear market bottoms were instead registered in 1985 and 2002 (17 years). The declines lasted for 5 and 7 years (1980-1985 and 1995-2002). During bear markets, EUR-DM/USD has declined for about 19% before each short-term rebound (21%, 16%, 19%, 15%, 30%, 17%, 15%, 25%). Bull trends extended for 45%/58% top/bottom. Bear trends moved for 41%/50% top/bottom. The current bull market left the bottom in 2002 at about 0.85. Within these bull/bear moves, the currency topped and bottomed every 2/3 years.

US housing market
Since 1969, housing market prices topped roughly every 9 years (1969, 1981, 1990, 1999, and 2007) and bottomed every 10 years (1971, 1982, 1992, and 2002). From top to bottom, declines lasted for about 2 years (69/71, 81/83, 90/92, 07/09). New highs were then reached after 3/5 years from the bottom. The current decline started in 2007.  

US unemployment rate
Since 1948, the unemployment rate had two bullish cycles (1952/61, 1969/1982). Movements lasted for 9/13 years and extended 63%/67% top/bottom. They all climbed in three distinct waves, before collapsing. Declines prior to the final wave up have lasted for 4 (1975-1979) and 2 (1958-1960) years before prices rose for the final peak. They streched for 38% and 33% respectively. The last wave lasted 1 year (1960-1961) and 3 years (1979-1982) from the bottom. Within these secular bull cycles, the unemployment rate topped/bottomed every 4/6 years. Corrections have instead continued for 1/3 years top/bottom. How would it fit in today’s scenario? Unemployment began in 2000. It topped in 2003, bottomed in 2007 and completed the second wave in 2009. The movement extended for 60% top/bottom. A third and final wave is still missing. It could be expected between 2013/2014, if history repeats itself.

   Toronto real estate market
   The Toronto real estate market has topped roughly every 15 years (1960, 1974, and 1989). It has bottomed every 15 years as well (1964/1980/1996). Bull moves have lasted for about 10 years (1964/1974, 1980/1989) and have extended for 55%/60% top/bottom. Downtrends have instead continued for 5/7 years (1959/1964, 1974/1980, 1989/1996). During these declines, the market has lost 20%/40% top/bottom. Within these larger moves, it has also shown smaller tops/bottoms every 4/5 years.

   Long-term interest rates
   In long-term, interest rates declines have continued for 25/27 years from top to bottom (1873-1900, 1920-1945, 1982-?). Consolidations at the bottom lasted for a maximum of nine years. Since 1954, Fed Funds have increased roughly every 4/5 years bottom to bottom (58/62/67/72/77/81/87/93/99/04/09). The longest period of decline has been five years (1989/1994). Up-trends have instead lasted for 20/27 years (1901-1921, 1954‑1980).
 
The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed, neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any forex, futures or commodity product. Those individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Forex, futures and commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. The risk of loss in trading forex, futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. All recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please Note: All performance figures and illustrations were obtained using historical back testing on a computer and are not the results of an actual account. No guarantee is inferred that future performance will be like the results shown. Futures, forex and options trading involve risk. There is a risk of loss in futures, forex and options trading.

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