Statistics

“The winds and the waves are always on the side of the ablest navigators”

Edward Gibbon

• Since 1900, the DJI topped 3 times (1929/1965/2000). The following periods of consolidation (bear?) continued for 13/17 years top to bottom (1906/1921-1929/1942-1965/1982). The DJI topped/bottomed roughly every 4/5 years within these lateral movements.
  

• Since 1933, the C.R.B. commodity index had two inflationary cycles. One topped in 1951, while the other finished in 1980 (29 years time span). The period of bear markets (1951-1968, 1980-2002) have continued for about 20 years. During these phases, the index topped and bottomed roughly every 4/5 years. The index bottomed instead every 30/34 years (1938/1968/2002). From bottom to top, the inflationary cycles have continued for about 12/13 years (1938/1951-1968/1980). Top to bottom, the index rose 55%/65%.

• Since 1972, Euro-DMark/Usd long term trends topped in 1980 and 1995 (15 years). From bottom to top the uptrend lasted for 10 years (1985-1995). Bear market bottoms were instead registered in 1985 and 2002 (17 years). The declines lasted for 5 and 7 years (1980-1985 and 1995-2002). Bull trends extended for 45/58% top/bottom. Bear trends moved for 41/50% top/bottom. The current bull market left the bottom in 2002 at about 0.85. Within these bull/bear moves, the currency topped and bottomed every 2/3 years.
  

• Since 1969, the housing market prices topped roughly every 9 years (1969, 1981, 1990, 1999, and 2007) and bottomed every 10 years (1971, 1982, 1992, and 2002). From top to bottom, declines lasted for about 2 years (69/71, 81/83, 90/92, 07/09 (?). New highs were then reached after 3/5 years from the bottom. The current decline started in 2007.
  
  

• Since 1948, the unemployment rate had two bullish cycles (1952/61, 1969/1982). Movements lasted for 9/13 years and extended 63%-67% top/bottom. They all climbed in three distinct waves, before collapsing. Within these secular bull-cycles, the unemployment rate topped/bottomed every 4/6 years. Corrections have instead continued for 1/3 years top/bottom. How would it fit in today’s scenario? Unemployment began in 2000. It topped in 2003, bottomed in 2007 and completed the second wave in 2009. The monument extended for 60% top/bottom. A third and final is still lacking. It could be expected between 2012/2013, if history repeats itself.

 

The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed, neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any forex, futures or commodity product. Those individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Forex, futures and commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. The risk of loss in trading forex, futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. All recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please Note: All performance figures and illustrations were obtained using historical back testing on a computer and are not the results of an actual account. No guarantee is inferred that future performance will be like the results shown. Futures, forex and options trading involve risk. There is a risk of loss in futures, forex and options trading.