Oil is rising and the U.S. dollar is falling?

Greece is saved again, but another test will be given at the end of March. Oil prices are moving toward 2011 highs. Will the U.S. dollar target the lows?

U.S.: The Unemployment Rate Could Rise Again

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment is shrinking and the trend should persist over the coming months.  However, longer-term cycles might anticipate a new swing toward the highs.

Short term trading: --EUR/USD, Feb. 15/12

--EUR/USD at 1.2920, stop-loss at 1.2990, target at 1.2910 or MOC. Over the short-term, risk aversion could support the U.S. dollar. Technically, the price is leaning against both the upper channel-line and the 100 days moving average.  Finally, there is a strong divergence between current price and the RSI indicator on the daily chart. In the past, it has been a strong indicator of trend’s reversal.

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Eur/Usd Could Decline Short-Term

(Image by -pottymouth- via Flickr)

The power struggle continues in Washington D.C., while economic conditions are fragile and risk stays high. The E.C.B. could cut rates in March or April, if the new Greece's bailout will not reassure the financial markets.  A weak euro is beneficial for Europe. However, any decline should be temporary. 

EUR/USD Meets Key Resistance

The string of better-than-expected reports continues in the United States. At the contrary, the E.U. Summit did not provide any guidance on the main issues. Greece remains on the brink of collapsing and the euro/usd could eventually correct.